Red Wings, Wild meet for key battle in Motown

Hockey Betting Lines

03/11/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A pair of teams fighting for a playoff berth in the Western Conference get together tonight at Detroit's Joe Louis Arena, where the hometown Red Wings take on the Minnesota Wild in a key late-season showdown.

The reigning conference champion Red Wings are in a fierce battle to earn a postseason spot this season, as the club presently trails Calgary by one point for the West's No. 8 seed. The Flames vaulted ahead of Detroit in the standings by rallying for a 4-2 victory Tuesday in the Motor City, scoring three unanswered goals in the third period to erase a 2-1 deficit.

Detroit had gone in front on second-period tallies by Pavel Datsyuk and Tomas Holmstrom, but Calgary tied the contest at 2-2 when Jarome Iginla knocked home a rebound 5:45 into the final session. Rene Bourque scored the go-ahead goal less than two minutes later, and the Flames tacked on an empty-netter in the final stages to seal the outcome.

Jimmy Howard finished with 28 saves for Detroit, which was outshot by a 15-4 margin in the fateful final period.

"I thought we got good goaltending [Tuesday] to give us a chance," Detroit coach Mike Babcock said. "We didn't respond with a good enough effort."

The Red Wings had won three of their first four outings following the Olympic break prior to Tuesday's setback and were fresh off back-to-back wins over Central Division rivals Nashville and Chicago.

Minnesota has more ground to make up in regards to a playoff spot, trailing the Flames by six points for eighth place in the West at the moment. The Wild haven't helped themselves by losing their last three games, although they did manage a point in two of those defeats.

The Wild are coming off a 3-2 shootout loss to visiting Florida on Tuesday in which the team failed to hold onto an early two-goal lead. The Panthers scored twice in the third period to force overtime, then prevailed on Cory Stillman's goal in the fourth round of the deciding phase.

"We should be playing desperate, playing playoff hockey, and we were far from that [Tuesday]," said Minnesota goaltender Niklas Backstrom, who turned in 29 saves in a losing cause.

Mikko Koivu and Robbie Earl netted first-period goals for the Wild, which begins a stretch of two straight road games tonight. Minnesota, a subpar 10-19-3 as the visitor for the season, will visit Northeast Division leader Buffalo on Friday.

The Wild has also historically struggled in Joe Louis Arena, having gone 2-8 with a tie in their last 11 trips there with losses in five of their last six games as the guest in this series. Detroit has taken five of the past seven overall meetings between the teams as well.

The Red Wings and Wild split two matchups held in Minnesota earlier this season.

Datsyuk, who has generated four goals and nine assists over a six-game scoring streak, netted both Detroit goals in a 5-2 loss to the Wild on January 27.

Wdogpile Hockey Betting News

<< Surging Flyers host Bruins in Winter Classic rematch
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Flyers will try to continue their surge in the right direction when they host the Boston Bruins tonight at Wachovia Center. The Flyers are 7-1-1 in their last nine games and have greatly improved their pl

<< Blues visit Islanders at Nassau Coliseum
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The St. Louis Blues will try to get back on track tonight when they visit the New York Islanders for an interconference clash at Nassau Coliseum. The Blues pushed their winning streak to a season-high five games by posting

<< Hawks hope to snap funk in DC
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlanta Hawks hope to avoid a third straight loss when they wrap up a three-game road trip Thursday night against the Southeast Division-rival Washington Wizards at the Verizon Center. Atlanta is winless so far

<< Lightning hope to get on track versus Maple Leafs
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Tampa Bay Lightning will aim for just their second win in eight games when they visit the Toronto Maple Leafs tonight at Air Canada Centre. The Lightning are only five points out of a playoff berth in the Eastern Conf

<< Blazers hit the road to Golden State
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Hoping to keep their playoff aspirations alive, the Portland Trail Blazers will hit the road for back-to-back games starting with tonight's showdown against the Golden State Warriors at ORACLE Arena. Portland is e

Penguins aim for fifth straight win in clash with hosting 'Canes >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Pittsburgh Penguins will try to stay perfect since returning from the Olympic break when they visit the Carolina Hurricanes tonight at RBC Center. The Penguins are 4-0 since the league came back from the Winter Games.

Howard, Magic put streak on line vs. Bulls >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Dwight Howard and the surging Orlando Magic shoot for their seventh straight win tonight in the conclusion of a three-game homestand versus the Chicago Bulls at Amway Arena. Orlando is riding a six-game

Senators resume western swing with stop in Calgary >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Having just picked up their first win since the Winter Olympics break, the Ottawa Senators will now try to pick up their first victory in Calgary since 2003 when they visit the Flames tonight at Pengrowth Saddledome. The

Sharks continue homestand with battle against Predators >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Having rallied in the third period in each of its last two victories, the San Jose Sharks wrap their season series with the Nashville Predators this evening at HP Pavilion. Even though it is getting later in the season, th

Panthers try to keep rolling in visit to Avalanche >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Florida Panthers will try to win four straight games for the first time this season when they visit the Colorado Avalanche tonight at the Pepsi Center. The Panthers come into this game six points back of a playoff spot

FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

NFL Betting Lines

To visit this sportsbook go to MySportsbook.com for all your college football betting needs.

Best Horse Betting Online

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.