Top-25 battle pits Tar Heels against Wildcats

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

01/27/2007 - Tucson, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A rare non-conference treat late in the season takes place in the desert this afternoon, as the fourth-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels come calling on the 17th-ranked Arizona Wildcats in Tucson.

The Tar Heels have won three straight games and improved to 5-1 in ACC play with Wednesday's 88-60 rout of Wake Forest in Winston-Salem. Roy Williams' squad has lost just twice this season, falling to Gonzaga in late November and then again at Virginia Tech on January 13th.

The Wildcats on the other hand struggled in recent weeks, dropping three consecutive tilts before responding in a big way against rival Arizona State on Wednesday, 71-47. The lopsided win moved Lute Olson's team to 14-5 overall, but only 5-4 in Pac-10 play.

This is the seventh all-time meeting between these two prolific programs, with the series all knotted up at three games apiece. Last season North Carolina posted an 86-69 win in Chapel Hill, the first meeting in this series that did not occur at a neutral site.

The Tar Heels are an extremely young team, but the scary thing is, it hasn't mattered in 2006-07, as the team ranks second in the nation in scoring (87.6 ppg), getting it done on 50.4 percent shooting. Four of the top five scorers are either freshman or sophomores, so the future is certainly bright in Chapel Hill. All-American Tyler Hansbrough has definitely not suffered a sophomore slump, as he leads the team in both scoring (18.5 ppg) and rebounding (8.1 rpg). He is followed in both categories by one of the nation's premier newcomers in freshman Brandan Wright (15.2 ppg, 6.4 rpg). The 6-9 phenom is shooting a ridiculous .646 from the floor and leads the team with 34 blocked shots. Other freshmen of note include guard Wayne Ellington (12.4 ppg, .404 from three-point range) and Ty Lawson (9.0 ppg, team-high 101 assists). In the rout of Wake Forest, Ellington led five Tar Heels in double figures with 18 points. Lawson poured in 15 points, Hansbrough just missed a double-double with 13 points and nine rebounds, while Wright and Danny Green chipped in 12 points apiece.

Arizona has the personnel to win a shootout with any team in the nation and that includes the explosive Tar Heels. The Wildcats are converting just about half of their shots thus far (.499), resulting in a healthy scoring average of 83.4 ppg. All five starters are averaging double figures, but the strength lies in the frontcourt, with a trio of athletic forwards. Marcus Williams leads the team with 18.1 points and 7.6 rebounds per. He is followed closely by Ivan Radenovic (16.0 ppg, 7.8 rpg) and Chase Budinger (15.5 ppg, 5.9 rpg). The backcourt is no slouch either, with guards Mustafa Shakur (14.2 ppg, 7.6 apg) and Jawann McClellan (11.7 ppg) making their presence felt. Despite not having Williams in the lineup last time out (one-game suspension), Arizona was able to make light work of the Sun Devils. The team shot 50 percent from the floor overall, as four of the team's five starters notched double digits. Budinger led the charge with a huge double-double, finishing with 21 points and 10 rebounds. McClellan added 14 points, followed by Jordan Hill, who filled in admirably for Williams, netting 12 points and grabbing nine boards. Radenovic finished things off with 11 points.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.

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