Seattle edges D.C. United with late winner

Soccer Betting Lines

07/15/2010 - Washington, D.C. (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Roger Levesque scored in the 89th minute and Kasey Keller made five saves, leading Seattle Sounders FC to a 1-0 victory over D.C. United in MLS on Thursday night at RFK Stadium.

Keller made a few great saves for his fifth shutout of the season and Levesque scored his first goal of the year to end Seattle's four-game winless skid.

Seattle (5-8-4) won for just the second time in its last eight matches and for just the second time on the road this season.

D.C. United (3-10-3) became the first team to lose 10 matches in MLS this year and is winless in four straight.

Both clubs created tons of scoring chances, as Fredy Montero and Steve Zakuani both missed wide on early chances and United 17-year-old Andy Najar was denied by Keller in the eighth minute.

Montero forced a save from D.C. goalkeeper Troy Perkins in the 15th minute and D.C.'s Stephen King forced Keller to turn his shot by the post in the 19th.

Najar found the side netting in the 32nd, then Zakuani and Moreno responded on the other end with chances that were both off target.

Seattle's Patrick Ianni turned a header over the crossbar early in the second, and Montero continued the trend of missing the target with a free kick around the right post in the 55th.

United's Chris Pontius followed with a shot wide left in the 59th but D.C. was gifted a chance to take the lead minutes later when Keller came out of his box to challenge Najar. Keller remained on the ground after the challenge, but his absence in goal was wasted by D.C.

Santino Quaranta fired a quick shot at the empty net but Ianni headed the ball off the line to prevent a goal. Keller, who finished the game with a limp, had another save in the 67th on new D.C. signing Pablo Hernandez.

Keller then tipped a long drive from Quaranta over the bar in the 76th and was up to the task again in the 87th when D.C.'s Branko Boskovic directed the ball on goal from close range.

Zakuani fired wide again in the 87th but Seattle found the game-winner seconds later through Levesque. Montero took the ball to the right edge of the box and crossed over Perkins to the far post, where Levesque lunged to head the ball just inside the left post.

Seattle will try to build on the win July 25 when it hosts the Colorado Rapids and D.C. will try to bounce back Sunday when the Los Angeles Galaxy visit.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.